双语阅读全球新能源体系正在建立_沙特阿拉伯经济

OILFUELLEDthe20thcentury—itscars,itswars,itseconomyanditsgeopolitics.Nowtheworldisinthemidstofanenergyshockthatisspeedinguptheshifttoaneworder.Ascovid-19strucktheglobaleconomyearlierthisyear,demandforoildroppedbymorethanafifthandpricescollapsed.Sincethentherehasbeenajitteryrecovery,butareturntotheoldworldisunlikely.Fossil-fuelproducersarebeingforcedtoconfronttheirvulnerabilities.ExxonMobilhasbeenejectedfromtheDowJonesIndustrialAverage,havingbeenamembersince.PetrostatessuchasSaudiArabianeedanoilpriceof$70-80abarreltobalancetheirbudgets.Todayitisscrapingalongatjust$40.

石油是20世纪的主要能源——不管是汽车、战争，还是经济、地缘政治。如今，在遭遇能源冲击后，全球能源加速转型，新秩序逐渐形成。今年以来，新冠疫情重创世界经济，石油需求下降五分之一有余，价格一落千丈。而后，尽管世界经济有所恢复，但退回旧秩序显然不太可能。化石燃料生产商被迫之下只能正视自身的不足。从年起，美孚石油就一直是道琼斯工业平均指数的计算指标，如今也遭出局下场。只有石油价格稳定在70-80美元/桶的区间时，沙特等石油国家才能平衡预算，但如今的石油价格仅勉强达到40美元/桶。

Therehavebeenoilslumpsbefore,butthisoneisdifferent.Asthepublic,governmentsandinvestorswakeuptoclimatechange,theclean-energyindustryisgainingmomentum.Capitalmarketshaveshifted:clean-powerstocksareupby45%thisyear.Withinterestratesnearzero,politiciansarebackinggreen-infrastructureplans.America’sDemocraticpresidentialcontender,JoeBiden,wantstospend$2trndecarbonisingAmerica’seconomy.TheEuropeanUnionhasearmarked30%ofits$bncovid-19recoveryplanforclimatemeasures,anditspresident,UrsulavonderLeyen,usedherstate-of-the-unionaddressthisweektoconfirmthatshewantstheEUtocutgreenhouse-gasemissionsby55%overlevelsinthenextdecade.

石油价格此前也曾一度暴跌，但这次不同以往。随着民众、政府和投资方逐渐认识到气候变暖的重要性，清洁能源行业越发强势。资本市场开始转变：清洁能源题材股票今年上涨了45%。政治家顶力支持绿色基础设施建设计划，给出了近乎为零的利率。美国民主党总统候选人乔·拜登（JoeBiden）提出拨款2万亿美元用于美国节能减排。欧盟指定8亿美元新冠疫情经济恢复方案中的30%用于改善气候方面，在本周，欧盟主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩发布国情咨文演说，明确表示希望十年后，欧盟的温室气体排放量能在年的基础上减少55%的排放。

The21st-centuryenergysystempromisestobebetterthantheoilage—betterforhumanhealth,morepoliticallystableandlesseconomicallyvolatile.Theshiftinvolvesbigrisks.Ifdisorderly,itcouldaddtopoliticalandeconomicinstabilityinpetrostatesandconcentratecontrolofthegreen-supplychaininChina.Evenmoredangerous,itcouldhappentooslowly.

21世纪的新能源体系有望比石油时代更加完善——更有利于人体健康，也更有益于政治和经济稳定。但是，转型也蕴含着巨大的风险。毫无章法的转型反而会加剧石油国家的政治经济动荡，并将绿色供应链的控制权转交给中国。更危险的便是，转型速度太过迟缓。

Todayfossilfuelsaretheultimatesourceof85%ofenergy.Butthissystemisdirty.Energyaccountsfortwo-thirdsofgreenhouse-gasemissions;thepollutionfromburningfossilfuelskillsover4mpeopleayear,mostlyintheemergingworld’smega-cities.Oilhasalsocreatedpoliticalinstability.FordecadespetrostatessuchasVenezuelaandSaudiArabia,withlittleincentivetodeveloptheireconomies,havebeenmiredinthepoliticsofhandoutsandcronyism.Inanefforttoensuresecuresupplies,theworld’sbigpowershaveviedtoinfluencethesestates,notleastintheMiddleEast,whereAmericahasroughly60,troops.Fossilfuelscauseeconomicvolatility,too.Oilmarketsarebuffetedbyanerraticcartel.Concentrationoftheworld’soilreservesmakessupplyvulnerabletogeopoliticalshocks.Littlewonderthatthepricehasswungbyover30%inasixth-monthperiod62timessince.

如今，化石燃料最高占到占整个能源供给的85%，但这个体系并不环保。化石燃料占到温室气体排放总量的三分之二，化石燃料燃烧过程中产生的污染每年造成万人死亡，主要出现在新兴国家的超大型城市。同时，石油还造成了政治动荡。几十年来，委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯等石油国家一直在利益交换和贪腐结党营私的政治怪圈中泥潭中挣扎，无心发展经济。为了确保能源供给，世界强国争先恐后地向石油国家施加影响，尤其是在中东地区，美国更是布下约六万兵力。化石燃料还会造成经济动荡。石油市场饱受阴晴不定的卡特尔集团的冲击。加之世界石油储备位置高度集中，能源供应也极易受到地缘政治的影响。这么一看，年以来，石油价格半年内价格波动高达30%的情况曾发生62次也不足为奇了。

Apictureofthenewenergysystemisemerging.Withboldaction,renewableelectricitysuchassolarandwindpowercouldrisefrom5%ofsupplytodayto25%in,andnearly50%by.Oilandcoalusewilldrop,althoughcleanernaturalgaswillremaincentral.Thisarchitecturewillultimatelybringhugebenefits.Mostimportant,decarbonisingenergywillavoidthechaosofuncheckedclimatechange,includingdevastatingdroughts,famine,floodsandmassdislocation.Oncemature,itshouldbemorepoliticallystable,too,becausesupplywillbediversified,geographicallyandtechnologically.Petrostateswillhavetoattempttoreformthemselvesand,astheirgovernmentsstarttodependontaxingtheirowncitizens,somewillbe